Some may wonder how easy it is to predict when departments will release initial notifications when the predictions are based almost entirely on the behavior of departments over the last three years.  I wrote about this very issue last year on my blog, and I want to repeat a few important points.

First, the dates are, in my view, somewhat predictable. Last year I was able to predict accurately (within one day) the timing of the initial notifications of 13 departments (of the 44 whose notifications I attempted to predict). More than half of my predictions were accurate within three days. To me, that’s a modest success. This year, we have even more data to work with, so I think Sid will do slightly better than I.

Here’s something else to keep in mind. Last year, I was not even close on 10 departments: University of California, Riverside, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pittsburgh, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, University of California, Davis, Purdue University, University of Massachusetts Amherst, University of Michigan Ann Arbor, and Johns Hopkins University. When the chair of graduate admissions changes from year to year, or when the department modifies its internal admissions calendar, of course we might expect things to change.